Regardless of the setting, most judgements and decisions are made under conditions of risk and uncertainty. However, there often exist severe limits to predicting the future. Business leaders look for shelter in “models” to accurately predict future outcomes but frequently overestimate their ability to predict hence fall prey to Illusion of Control with all its potential costs.
Board directors in their role in governing, could be more effective in being aware and knowing what to look out for when management decisions are impacted by the Illusion of Control, cognitive biases and emotional barriers. Board directors can help management see, act and learn beyond the obvious and make better judgements in managing their businesses and stakeholders.
During the session, you will:
- Explore the impact and implications of Predictions and Illusion of Control
- Gain a better understanding of how Cognitive Biases and Emotional Barriers affect management decisions
- Identify the common pitfalls in individual judgements (CEO calling the shot) and group judgements (management team’s collective decisions)
This DID session will also feature several interactive and experiential exercises to enhance the learning and interactions among the participants and with Professor Anil Gaba.
Anil Gaba received his Ph.D. in Decision Sciences at Duke University in the United States. He is currently the Orpar Chaired Professor of Risk Management and Professor of Decision Sciences at INSEAD. He is also the Academic Director of Centre on Decision Making and Risk Analysis at INSEAD. He was Dean of Faculty INSEAD in 2006-2009, and Dean of Faculty and Research Asia Campus in 2002-2006.
His research is in the area of assessment and use of subjective information, and analysis of decisions under risk and uncertainty. His research has appeared in several academic journals such as Management Science, Operations Research, Marketing Science, and Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. He is a co-author (with S. Makridakis and R. Hogarth) of a book Dance with Chance: Making Luck Work For You.
He teaches courses on Uncertainty, Data, and Judgement (MBA), Probability and Statistics (PhD), and Bayesian Analysis (PhD). In addition, he teaches modules on Judgements & Decision Making and Risk Management in several executive development programmes all over the world including Europe, United States, China, Singapore, India, and the Middle East. He has won the Outstanding Teacher Award INSEAD MBA Core Course (Uncertainty, Data, and Judgement) eleven times. He also directs the International Directors Program (for board directors) at INSEAD.
He is a regular consultant and keynote speaker at various multinationals in areas of judgements & decision making and risk management.
Board Chairs, CEOs, Executive Directors and Non-Executive Directors of publicly listed and privately-owned companies, family-owned businesses, government agencies, social enterprises, and non-profit organisations
I find this series very practical and extremely beneficial. I would recommend more board directors and senior executives attend this series to facilitate mutual understanding of perspectives between board and management.
Seah Choo Meng, Director, Mapletree Industrial Trust Management Ltd.
"Excellent platform and forum to interact with fellow directors, exchange ideas and share insights on the key issues facing Board leadership. Highly respected facilitator that raised the energy and successfully evoked input from the participants...I came away inspired to make changes and implement fresh ideas."
Sharon Sng, Board Director, Surbana International Consultants Pte Ltd
"Good practical advice from experienced directors that provides insightful thinking on how to improve one's own role as an effective Board Director."
Patrick Go, Independent Director, Del Monte Pacific Ltd